Detroit Lions: Crawling Out The Gate

I do not really know how I feel about this season so far. On one hand, watching the Lions lose a bunch of games in terrible fashion is not fun. On the other hand, it is pretty clear this team does not have what it takes to be a contender, so having a higher draft pick may not be such a bad thing. I personally lean a bit towards the latter at this point, but if they get hot, I will not be complaining.

I am changing up how I do these posts for this season. Last season, I did summaries of each of the four games, but this year, I will be just writing about my observations over the four games. In playing fantasy football, I follow the general rule that three games make a trend, so I feel confident that what we have seen over the four games is indicative of what to expect the rest of the season. There will also be a report on the most exciting group of players, the rookies.

Noticeable Improvements

Two players have really stood out as being significantly improved from last season. The first is left tackle Taylor Decker. I would describe his career up to this point as decent. Since we drafted him in the first round out of Ohio State, he has not been spectacular, but he has not been terrible either. Well, after signing a huge contract extension this offseason, he seems to finally have turned a page. He has performed very well on Matthew Stafford’s blind side, having not allowed a sack, and he has also been great in the run game. If he can keep this level of play up, that would be huge, because having a stud left tackle can make a huge difference for a team.

The other player who has really stood out this year is none other than tight end T.J. Hockenson. I have been very tough on him on this site for how badly he played last year (excluding his Week 1 explosion), but he strung together three solid games to open the year. His stat lines in those games were 5-56-1, 4-62, and 4-53. He then had a bit of a flop in Week 4, only putting up 2-9-1, but that touchdown was certainly a nice bonus. Now, am I suddenly of the mindset that he was a good pick for the Lions two drafts ago? No, I still think drafting him at #8 overall was a massive mistake, not just because of Hockenson, but also because of who we could have had instead. He still will double-catch passes sometimes, and his blocking does not look good either, which is disappointing for being such a “complete” tight end prospect coming out of college. I still do not believe that he will ever reach the level of production that a tight end taken that early should reach, which would be the numbers a guy like George Kittle or Travis Kelce puts up, but it has been nice to see some rather consistent production out of him. For what it’s worth, Kittle and Kelce were taken in the fifth and third rounds, respectively.

The Pass Rush is Still Anemic

It is extremely disappointing that this is still as big of an issue as it is. After how bad our pass rush was last year, I was hoping that we would seriously address it this offseason. In a way, it looked like we were. We signed Jamie Collins, drafted Julian Okwara, and I kept hearing all these glowing reviews about guys like Da’Shawn Hand and Austin Bryant. Add in our incumbent starters of Trey Flowers and Romeo Okwara and it seemed like we were looking at some real improvements this year. That has been far from the case this year, unfortunately. We rank last by a ridiculous margin in quarterback pressures and tied for last in sacks (5). In case you are curious, those five sacks came from Romeo Okwara (2), Trey Flowers (1), Jamie Collins (1), and Reggie Ragland (1). Just for reference, the teams tied for having the most sacks are the Los Angeles Rams and the Pittsburgh Steelers (20), and there are two players who individually have more sacks than the Lions, Aaron Donald (7.5) and Myles Garrett (6), and two players who have the same amount of sacks as the Lions, Za’Darius Smith and Yannick Ngakoue. This cannot continue if this team wants to get anywhere. The main reason we were able to steal that one game from the Cardinals is because we actually made Kyler Murray uncomfortable and forced him into throwing three interceptions. Mitch Trubisky of all people was able to come back on us because we stopped getting to him in the second half of that game. I do not know if the scheme is bad or the players are not doing their jobs right, but either way this team has to find a fix for this.

Rock Solid Running Backs

Adrian Peterson, Kerryon Johnson, and D’Andre Swift have formed a solid three-back rotation in the backfield. Peterson has been our leading rusher every week, although he got the most carries in three of them, so that is not super surprising, and he has done well. He clearly is not the same running back that he was on the Minnesota Vikings, who we became all too familiar with, but he has enough left in the tank to be effective. There have been a couple plays, however, where he has open field ahead of him and his lack of burst really shows. I would love to see Swift get a hole like that, but he has not quite had that chance yet. Johnson has been more of the change-of-pace back behind Peterson, sometimes even getting entire series to himself, and he has done well too. He has not done anything spectacular with the ball in his hands, just like Peterson, but he has really performed well in pass-blocking situations, which has become massively important in recent years. Swift has consistently been the third man, which is not surprising since he is a rookie, but I would really like to see him get some more run. He brings explosiveness that Peterson and Johnson do not quite have, and I know if he can get some holes to run through, he can rip off some huge chunks of yardage. This group will be very interesting to watch in the coming weeks, especially with Bo Scarbrough coming back in the near future, although I would assume he will be more relegated to a reserve role unless one of the aforementioned three guys gets hurt.

Worst Position Group: Linebackers

What a collection of guys we have going at the linebacker position. The five guys who have seen the most consistent minutes are as follows:

Jamie Collins – Hotshot free agent signing this offseason who has been good, not great.

Reggie Ragland – Another, although less significant, free agent signing.

Jarrad Davis – Contract-year player that has consistently shown inability to play well against the passing game or the running game.

Jahlani Tavai – Controversial second-round pick from two drafts ago who is big and slow.

Christian Jones – Veteran who is pretty much the opposite of exciting.

The reason I highlight this group in particular is because the question must be asked, how can it look this bad? I mean behind Jamie Collins we have a bunch of players who are nothing more than depth guys on good teams. Jahlani Tavai played just eight snaps against the Saints in Week 4, and this is a second-year player that was drafted in the second-round. He should be on the field almost every single play. The other thing about the Tavai pick is that he was taken in the same draft that we took Hockenson. Remember what I said earlier about who we could have had instead of Hockenson? Well that player is Devin Bush. We clearly felt we had a need at linebacker, but passed on a guy who is now leading the Pittsburgh Steelers in tackles in favor of drafting a tight end, and then take a big, slow linebacker in the second round. Just think about how much better this room would look if we had Devin Bush instead of Jahlani Tavai. Unfortunately, the linebacker position has major responsibilities against both the run and the pass, and because our room is so lacking in talent, our defense is getting beat in both of those facets.

It’s Time for Change

At this point, I am done with three specific people in this organization. First, and potentially the most obvious, is head coach Matt Patricia. For being a defensive-minded coach, he has done a very poor job scheming up a defense. I mean you would think he would at least be able to find some way for us to get pressure on the quarterback on a consistent basis. Combine that with his mediocre record and you already have every reason to fire him. We hired him to take to the next level that Jim Caldwell could not take us to, and he has not done that. In fact, he has done quite the opposite.

Secondly, I am ready to see general manager Bob Quinn go as well. If we do fire Quinn, my assumption would be that Patricia would also be fired, although I think it is possible that we fire Patricia and keep Quinn around. Quinn has not put together a good track record in the draft here in Detroit. He has made some good picks, such as Kenny Golladay, Tracy Walker, and Frank Ragnow. In fact, I would argue he has made more good picks than bad picks. He has had some major misses, though, specifically in the first and second rounds. Jarrad Davis, Teez Tabor, and Jahlani Tavai are three of the names I can think of off the top of my head. Those are the picks that hurt the most to miss on, because there are a lot of guys available in the first two rounds that will be major difference makers, and if you do not get one of those guys, then you are set back another few years. This is exaggerated even more when the player you take instead ends up busting completely. The combination of Davis, Tabor, and Tavai easily may have set this team back five years. That is without even including the potential of Hockenson and one of the picks from this past year, who we will get to real soon here, also busting out.

The final person I am done with is quarterback Matthew Stafford. I already alluded to this in my post following the season opener against the Bears, but things just have not looked better in the following three games either. It is all the same problems I have had with him since he got here as a rookie. No touch on his passes, bad decisions, inaccurate at times even on simple throws like slant routes, and no mobility. After that awful pick he threw against the Bears where he threw it way behind Marvin Jones on a slant route, we got another perfect example of his inaccuracy against the Saints where he had Hockenson open in the end zone, but instead horribly underthrew him and it got intercepted. That is a touchdown if he can put the ball in the right spot, and it was not that difficult of a throw to make. He just failed to make it. That ended up being a 14-point swing in that game. I think it is also important to consider that the rest of this team does not look too good either. It is not like every other position is solid and Stafford alone is keeping us from contending. By the time this team is really ready to compete, Stafford may reach an age where his arm strength is not what it used to be, and that is his one elite trait. Once his arm strength goes, he will be even worse off. I just think this team needs to finally start looking for another quarterback. Depending on how the rest of this season plays out I may even be pulling for us to pull the trigger on one in the first round of next year’s draft. My dream would be to have the chance to land Trevor Lawrence, but that does not look particularly likely, unfortunately.

Rookie Report

These are always the most interesting players to talk about, as they best represent the potential future of the team. Two of the rookies, fourth-round pick Logan Stenberg and seventh-round pick Jashon Cornell, have not seen the field yet, with Stenberg being a backup guard and Cornell having torn his Achilles, and third-round pick Julian Okwara has played a few snaps (25 in four games), but has not recorded any stats yet, so none of those three are included here. Of the three, I will be looking for Okwara to hopefully make an impact, especially because we desperately need a good edge rusher.

Jeff Okudah – Oh man, where do I even begin with Okudah? After being so hesitant about the Lions drafting him, I spent the rest of the offseason trying to convince myself that he was going to actually become a great cornerback for us. I was excited to watch him finally play in Week 2 against the Packers, but then wow did things go south fast. Okudah looks borderline lost in coverage, getting beat by every receiver he lines up against. It’s not just the best receivers, either, because Davante Adams and Deandre Hopkins destroyed him every time he lined up against them, he also got beat deep by Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 2, and Tre’Quan Smith kept shaking him in Week 4 as well. He does not look bad like “Oh, he is just a rookie,” he just looks flat out bad. He looks slow, which was a concern of mine after running a 4.48 40-yard dash at the Combine. For comparison, recently departed cornerback Darius Slay ran a 4.36 at the Combine. That is a massive difference, and it really shows. I also was worried that Okudah was a beneficiary of Chase Young’s constant quarterback pressure at Ohio State, and now that he does not have the benefit of playing behind such a talented defensive line, he just looks terrible. He did get an interception against the Cardinals, but it was more of a bad throw by Kyler Murray than a good play by Okudah. So far it looks like the only thing Okudah is good at is making tackles. To be fair, it is good that he does not shy away from contact like some corners do but having that as his primary skill does not make him worth the third overall pick. Not even close. A corner taken that high has to be a complete cornerback that is an instant positive contributor. Okudah was referred to as the best cornerback prospect since Jalen Ramsey, but he does not even look half the player. Now, I know there are people pointing at the guy that I wanted the Lions to draft, Isaiah Simmons, and how he is not performing very well either. While that is true, the blame for that is mostly on the Cardinals’ coaching staff, because they are not using him properly. They are trying to play him at inside linebacker, which is the position that allows the least amount of versatility, which is Simmons’ strength. Once they get him to a place where his athleticism can shine, such as outside linebacker or an in-the-box safety, he will start producing. Plus, remember how bad our linebacker room looks? Wouldn’t it be great if we had an athletic freak like Simmons in the mix (6’4” 238 lbs. and 4.38 speed)? Okudah does not have the excuse of playing out of position, he was marked as the sole outstanding cornerback prospect in this draft, and according to PFF, he is being outperformed by a number of his fellow rookie cornerbacks this season, some drafted in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft. If Okudah does not figure it out, and fast, this is going to go down as maybe one of the Lions’ biggest draft misses and also add to Bob Quinn’s subpar track record in the first two rounds.

D’Andre Swift – I talked about Swift already, he is currently stuck as the third man in a three-back rotation. In his limited action, he has shown both burst in the running game as well as receiving ability and pass-blocking chops. Aside from the excruciating drop against the Bears that would have won the game, I do not have anything negative to say about him. Hopefully, he starts to take a few touches away from Adrian Peterson, because Swift offers way more big-play ability.

Jonah Jackson – I have a very simple way of telling how well an offensive lineman has played. The less I hear his name, the better. I have very rarely heard Jackson’s name called in the first four games, and that tells me we may have a potential stud here. Aside from perhaps one or two false start penalties, Jackson has been strong on the interior of the line. The third round seems to be Bob Quinn’s money round (his third-round picks prior to the 2020 NFL Draft: Graham Glasgow, Kenny Golladay, Tracy Walker, and Will Harris), and it seems like Jackson may just be another good third-round pick for us.

Quintez Cephus – A pretty big surprise, he seemed to be one of Stafford’s top targets while Kenny Golladay was out with an injury and looked good doing it. He had an absolutely brutal drop, but beyond that he has shown dependable hands and despite the fact that his Combine results left a lot to be desired (4.73 40-yard dash) he just has a knack for getting open. With Golladay back in the lineup, Cephus has not recorded a catch the last two games, but I expect him to continue to develop into a solid receiver for us.

John Penisini – He has gotten a bit of playing time in recent weeks and has looked alright, contributing on a number of tackles. Being a sixth-round, run-stuffing defensive tackle, I did not expect much out of him at all, so he has already surpassed my expectations.

It has been a rough start for this team, but we have a relatively easy schedule coming up over the next five games. Safety Jayron Kearse recently tweeted out “6-3,” so he certainly is feeling optimistic about what they can do on the field. I am not that optimistic, but the potential is definitely there for the Lions to win a few games, and it would be really nice to see them get on a roll here. Time will tell.