Thoughts on a Stronger-Than-Expected Start for the Detroit Lions

I wonder how USA Today is feeling about their 3-13 prediction now. I would not say that I am surprised the Lions are exceeding the preseason expectations for them, especially on a national level, but I am surprised about how much they are exceeding them by. I thought they would be lucky to get one win in the three-game stretch against the Chargers, Eagles, and Chiefs, especially after the collapse against the Cardinals in Week 1. Then they went ahead and beat the Chargers and Eagles before barely losing to the Chiefs. You can try to blame that game on the refs, because yes, they were bad, but I am not in that camp because the Lions made a ton of their own mistakes that could just as easily be pointed to as reasons for the loss.

For some reason, our moderate success so far this season feels different from past seasons. In the 2011 season when we made the playoffs so we could get blown out by the Saints, it almost felt lucky. We had way more game-winning drives that season than we realistically should have been able to get. This season, I do not feel like we are getting lucky in these games, I feel like our guys are actually playing well and winning them, rather than just happening to put together a touchdown drive on the last possession. I am going to unpack some of the things that have really stood out, both good and bad, during the first four weeks of the season.

The Defense Looks Much Improved

This is not exactly something that should be surprising, especially when looking at the Lions’ moves this offseason. We made quite a few notable signings, including Justin Coleman, Rashaan Melvin, and Mike Daniels, who unfortunately is still dealing with an injury. Additionally, we prioritized defense in the draft after (questionably) selecting T.J. Hockenson in the first round, the Lions went all defense with their next four picks, selecting Jahlani Tavai, Will Harris, Austin Bryant, and Amani Oruwariye. It was very evident that Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia really were pushing for some major steps forward on the defensive side of the ball, and thus far this season I would say it is starting to come together. Yes, that second half in the game against the Cardinals was not a great performance from the defense, but outside of that I think they have done a fine job. We are getting some pressure on the quarterback, and our corners are doing a good job in coverage. That is a really good combination for discouraging opposing offenses. Our run defense has been solid as well, largely thanks to Damon Harrison, who truly is an outstanding defensive tackle. We held the explosive Chiefs offense relatively in check, which in itself is impressive, considering that team can drop 50 on just about anybody. Then, of course, the very next week the Colts go out there and beat them using the same strategy. Did we, along with the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, actually help provide the blueprint for stopping the Chiefs? It is hard to say, but it certainly is a nice thought.

Stafford Looks Okay…Not Great

I wish I could look at Stafford and say “Wow, he is really lighting it up this year,” but I just can’t. I still see the same Stafford that I have seen just about every year he has been in the league. He still throws the ball too hard sometimes, and never has any touch on it. That in itself is limiting because there are some throws you just cannot make when you are throwing it as hard as you can. This is increasingly frustrating with every season that comes and goes because this has always been a problem for him, and he still has yet to really do anything to correct it. Even after Golden Tate would stare at him from down the field every single time Stafford zinged one over his head, he still just has not gotten any better. Now, I will credit him, in that I cannot point at him as the reason for our loss or our tie thus far. I could do that with a few other quarterbacks who have been disappointing, such as Baker Mayfield, but Stafford for the most part has done a decent job.

Kerryon Johnson is the Real Deal

I will be honest, I did not love the Kerryon Johnson pick when it first happened. I had watched him play a good few times at Auburn during his senior year, and he looked alright, but not impressive. Now, when I found out soon afterwards that he was playing through a lingering injury all year, I became far more optimistic about his outlook. Through the first four games of this year, he looks like everything we have been missing in the run game. He runs well with good vision and patience, and demonstrates some impressive moves, oftentimes making the first guy miss. He also performs well in pass protection, able to knock blitzing linebackers or defensive backs off-course. He really looks like a complete back, and we have not had one of those in a long time. The one knock that I may put on him is that he has not broken free for a long touchdown run yet. Those big plays can win games, and unfortunately it just has not happened yet. Now, he has for some reason faced a lot of loaded boxes. I do not really know why, because I feel like he has not established himself as one of those really dangerous running backs, like a Christian McCaffrey or an Alvin Kamara, who typically demands that kind of defensive strategy. Perhaps opposing teams do see him as a threat of that level, even though he has not quite demonstrated that in full yet. The other possibility is they could be trying to force Stafford to beat us, which I understand and do not understand at the same time. Yes, he had a down year last year and still does not look great this year, but he still is regarded as one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Despite this defensive attention that Kerryon is getting, he still is on pace for 1,000 yards, so he is having a great year otherwise. Hopefully he keeps it up.

The Rookies Have Shown Some Promise

I think the most intriguing storyline year in and year out is how that year’s rookies are performing. Let us start with the one that is always the most interesting, the first-round pick, T.J. Hockenson. In case you are wondering, no, I still do not like the pick. In fact, as I am writing this I am watching Devin Bush, the guy I wanted the Lions to draft, destroy the Chargers. I will credit Hockenson, though, he had a fantastic opening week, with 131 yards and a touchdown. He came crashing back down to earth against the Chargers, though, with a measly seven yards on one catch. Then he had a somehow even worse stat line the next week against the Eagles, with only one yard on one catch. He was able to secure a touchdown against the Chiefs, but only had 3 catches for 27 yards. Look, I cannot sit here and say that he is having a terrible rookie season for a tight end. Ups and downs are expected for any rookie, but especially for a tight end, who does not necessarily get consistent usage and production every week. This further supports my issue with the pick, though, that taking a tight end at #8 overall is just not worth it. If you take anyone that early he better be an every-week contributor. For a position like tight end, which is more obscure and far less often taken early in the draft, he has got to be a star to warrant the selection. I need to see performances like he had Week 1 more often before I can even begin to consider it a good pick by the Lions.

Another rookie who got a lot of hype this offseason, Jahlani Tavai, has had some good plays. He is incredibly strong for a linebacker, and it shows. The one issue with him is that because he is so slow, he is typically taken off the field in passing situations. I hope he continues to develop because he has the build and strength to be a difference-maker at linebacker. Similar to Hockenson, though, I need to see more consistent production out of him. He has kind of disappeared more and more as the season progressed, and that is worrying, especially because of how much he was talked up this preseason.

Will Harris has played some meaningful minutes and has looked pretty good. He is a really hard hitter, and that is exciting to see from the safety position. I am willing to be more patient with him because unlike guys taken in the first and second round, a third-round pick typically takes some development before he turns into an every-down player.

Outside of those three, none of the other rookies have made much of an immediate impact. Austin Bryant has been fighting an injury all season and is now on IR. Amani Oruwariye has also been fighting an injury, and before that was typically a scratch anyways. Neither of those two are desperately needed right now, as both our defensive line and defensive backs have been playing very well so far. Travis Fulgham has been cut and placed on the practice squad, which is not that surprising, seeing as our receiver corps is pretty much set. Ty Johnson has played a little bit, but the presence of J.D. McKissic (who, might I add, has played well in his own right) makes it harder for him to see the field. Isaac Nauta is also on the practice squad. I do not have much optimism for him, honestly, because he does not offer anything super exciting. P.J. Johnson was cut altogether, which was disappointing simply because he is gigantic, and that alone I thought at least warranted a spot on the practice squad, but apparently the Lions thought differently.

I think there are a lot of reasons for optimism about this season so far. I genuinely thought we could start the season 1-3 or even 0-4 if things went south in Week 1, which they did, but we came back strong and are sitting at 2-1-1. We have another big test coming up with a game at Lambeau Field, which is always a tough place to play. If the Lions come out firing in that one as well and get the win in Green Bay, then I will be even further convinced that we have an exciting season ahead of us.